200724 國務卿龐培奧演講部分評析-上 不準確文字稿

各位觀眾大家好，今天是2020年7月24日，我是兒玉提組夜，我要來聊聊美國國務卿龐培奧台灣時間今天凌晨的演說，形式將會是以一邊撥放美國之音的同步口音的版本一邊評論的方式，美國之音的口譯素質其實不怎麼樣，也可以從中看出過往美國政府對漢語圈喊話用心不足的事實。但我一時之間也沒有更好的選項，所以大家就將就著聽吧。

Thank you. Thank you all. Thank you, Governor, for that very, very generous introduction. It is true: When you walk in that gym and you say the name “Pompeo,” there is a whisper. I had a brother, Mark, who was really good — a really good basketball player.

And how about another round of applause for the Blue Eagles Honor Guard and Senior Airman Kayla Highsmith, and her wonderful rendition of the national anthem? (Applause.)

Thank you, too, to Pastor Laurie for that moving prayer, and I want to thank Hugh Hewitt and the Nixon Foundation for your invitation to speak at this important American institution. It was great to be sung to by an Air Force person, introduced by a Marine, and they let the Army guy in in front of the Navy guy’s house. (Laughter.) It’s all good.

It’s an honor to be here in Yorba Linda, where Nixon’s father built the house in which he was born and raised.

To all the Nixon Center board and staff who made today possible — it’s difficult in these times — thanks for making this day possible for me and for my team.

We are blessed to have some incredibly special people in the audience, including Chris, who I’ve gotten to know — Chris Nixon. I also want to thank Tricia Nixon and Julie Nixon Eisenhower for their support of this visit as well.

I want to recognize several courageous Chinese dissidents who have joined us here today and made a long trip.

And to all the other distinguished guests — (applause) — to all the other distinguished guests, thank you for being here. For those of you who got under the tent, you must have paid extra.

And those of you watching live, thank you for tuning in.

And finally, as the governor mentioned, I was born here in Santa Ana, not very far from here. I’ve got my sister and her husband in the audience today. Thank you all for coming out. I bet you never thought that I’d be standing up here.

老實說這一段我真的很想跳過，某個程度上是我自己的劣根性在作祟吧，但是你們可以從這近乎冗長的介紹文感受到美國菁英圈對於傑出但低位相對不高的付出者的尊崇、對於場地背後蘊含的私人菁英回饋公共的表揚、以及對於鄉土、家人、先人的尊重以及熱愛，可以和長官來賓式的，中文演講做個對比。

My remarks today are the fourth set of remarks in a series of China speeches that I asked National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, FBI Director Chris Wray, and the Attorney General Barr to deliver alongside me.

We had a very clear purpose, a real mission. It was to explain the different facets of America’s relationship with China, the massive imbalances in that relationship that have built up over decades, and the Chinese Communist Party’s designs for hegemony.

Our goal was to make clear that the threats to Americans that President Trump’s China policy aims to address are clear and our strategy for securing those freedoms established.

Ambassador O’Brien spoke about ideology. FBI Director Wray talked about espionage. Attorney General Barr spoke about economics. And now my goal today is to put it all together for the American people and detail what the China threat means for our economy, for our liberty, and indeed for the future of free democracies around the world.

好，到這裡我們可以看到龐培澳對這四個演講的基本定性喔，很多人對這篇演講的直覺就是新鐵幕演講，並且拿邱吉爾鐵幕演講的內容去評論這段稿詞強硬程度之類的東西，但是我必需要強調，鐵幕演講的主旨已經是直接在討論解決方案了:邱吉爾演講時並不認為需要花力氣在論證蘇聯威脅的性質存在，它是默認大家都知道的，他把力氣花在強調這個威脅的量級，爭論要有多強大的力量才能阻止它。

而在2020龐培奧必須從”釐清”中國威脅開始，這毫無疑問的是個警訊，美國慵懶的太久了，必須要盡快進入狀況，去正視自己過往的權宜之計正在創造一個霸權威脅的事實。

然而還有幾個看點，第一是龐培奧依然無意去定調現今中俄誰的優先性比較高，我並不確定是當今的美國當局對於這件事情沒有定論，抑或是他們覺得這個時候去根本挑戰美國人民傳統的、由冷戰繼承下來的、核心國際觀並不明智。

其二是他依然使用了一個比較軟性的，守護已經建立的自由，這個論述，這代表的是局勢尚未發展到美國想要表態直接涉入阻止乃至解放中國政權在自己國內的為惡的程度。

Next year marks half a century since Dr. Kissinger’s secret mission to China, and the 50th anniversary of President Nixon’s trip isn’t too far away in 2022.

The world was much different then.

We imagined engagement with China would produce a future with bright promise of comity and cooperation.

But today — today we’re all still wearing masks and watching the pandemic’s body count rise because the CCP failed in its promises to the world. We’re reading every morning new headlines of repression in Hong Kong and in Xinjiang.

We’re seeing staggering statistics of Chinese trade abuses that cost American jobs and strike enormous blows to the economies all across America, including here in southern California. And we’re watching a Chinese military that grows stronger and stronger, and indeed more menacing.

I’ll echo the questions ringing in the hearts and minds of Americans from here in California to my home state of Kansas and beyond:

What do the American people have to show now 50 years on from engagement with China?

Did the theories of our leaders that proposed a Chinese evolution towards freedom and democracy prove to be true?

Is this China’s definition of a win-win situation?

50年過去了，龐培奧在這段主要是對這50年來的和平演變策略做出定性：美國過去的投資和貿易是為了引導中國成為正常國家；而不是為了中國的廉價勞動力。我必須在這裡強調，在1972年美國的確是可以隨便在任何一個開發中區域建立類似的模式的，中國牌的成立是建立在毛澤東晚年及鄧小平政權半膨風半求饒的外交成就所達成的，而不具有唯物史觀上的必然性。

也因此美國理所當然的定調了中國逐步的成為正常國家是約定的一部份，而中國出於劣根性理所當然地認為我騙到你就是我厲害你好還是認賠。不只要美國認賠，他們還直接把資源做反向挪用，打算進一步傷害美國。

這不是美國的業報，而是中國失約。

And indeed, centrally, from the Secretary of State’s perspective, is America safer? Do we have a greater likelihood of peace for ourselves and peace for the generations which will follow us?

Look, we have to admit a hard truth. We must admit a hard truth that should guide us in the years and decades to come, that if we want to have a free 21st century, and not the Chinese century of which Xi Jinping dreams, the old paradigm of blind engagement with China simply won’t get it done. We must not continue it and we must not return to it.

As President Trump has made very clear, we need a strategy that protects the American economy, and indeed our way of life. The free world must triumph over this new tyranny.

進一步的，龐培奧指出了中國現在已經不演了，要直接挑戰21世紀的普世環境了，美國為首的自由世界的經濟情況在受到傷害，自由世界人民生活型態也收到傷害。

Now, before I seem too eager to tear down President Nixon’s legacy, I want to be clear that he did what he believed was best for the American people at the time, and he may well have been right.

He was a brilliant student of China, a fierce cold warrior, and a tremendous admirer of the Chinese people, just as I think we all are.

He deserves enormous credit for realizing that China was too important to be ignored, even when the nation was weakened because of its own self-inflicted communist brutality.

In 1967, in a very famous Foreign Affairs article, Nixon explained his future strategy. Here’s what he said:

He said, “Taking the long view, we simply cannot afford to leave China forever outside of the family of nations…The world cannot be safe until China changes. Thus, our aim — to the extent we can, we must influence events. Our goal should be to induce change.”

And I think that’s the key phrase from the entire article: “to induce change.”

So, with that historic trip to Beijing, President Nixon kicked off our engagement strategy. He nobly sought a freer and safer world, and he hoped that the Chinese Communist Party would return that commitment.

As time went on, American policymakers increasingly presumed that as China became more prosperous, it would open up, it would become freer at home, and indeed present less of a threat abroad, it’d be friendlier. It all seemed, I am sure, so inevitable.

But that age of inevitability is over. The kind of engagement we have been pursuing has not brought the kind of change inside of China that President Nixon had hoped to induce.

The truth is that our policies — and those of other free nations — resurrected China’s failing economy, only to see Beijing bite the international hands that were feeding it.

直到這裏我認為可以作為上部的總結。國務卿龐培奧充分闡述了尼克森開始的和平演變策略是多麼的天真而善良，中國作為一個朋友或是做為一個敵人具有多大的潛力，而中國無恥而狡詐的行為讓一切徒勞無功，接下來他將會提到美國錯誤的傷害盟友以及中國的下限是如何讓西方世界的外交秩序失去功能，而這之中當然提到到了台灣。

上部的評析就到這邊，我有餘力的話會盡快完成剩下的部分，最近局勢可能變化很快，請大家對於各種管道保持關注。